Karl Rove's Reported Possible Number Shift in the Iowa Caucus May be wrong: Cruz vs Trump

In the Iowa caucus Karl Rove is reporting, and he is being quoted on a lot of news outlets that if slightly over four votes per precinct had been shifted to Trump from Cruz than Trump would have possibly won the caucus. I think that the reported numbers are wrong. If slightly over two votes per precinct had shifted than Trump would have been the winner. There are 1,500 precincts in Iowa. The difference in the vote count between Cruz and Trump is 6,239 votes which works out to be slightly over four votes per precinct if the 6,239 votes are divided by 1,500. The correct method is to divide the 6,239 votes by two to get the average number of votes and round up and down to the next whole number. The winner has the higher number. If the average of 3,118.5 is used and dividing it by 1,500 produces 2.079 votes per precinct. Trump would win if slightly more than two votes per precinct were shifted. This is simply seen by examining the following: let's look at smaller numbers. If Cruz got 12 votes and Trump got 8 votes. The difference is 4 votes. Shifting the 4 votes would give Cruz 8 votes and Trump 12 votes. If we use the average it would take only a two vote shift to make the votes even. Shifting two from 12 produces 10, and adding two to eight produces 10. The numbers would be equal. In a larger sample it would take a total of 3,119 votes to be shifted from Cruz to Trump for Trump to be the winner. Which is slightly more than two votes per precinct.